01 · The gap
Every borrower has a credit file. Except the farmer.
Consumers have FICO. Small businesses have D&B and PayNet. U.S. farmers have no bureau and no portable file — $625B of farm debt underwritten with no shared record of who repays.
Stealth · 2026
Agriculture is mispriced at scale.
Fallow is building the credit layer for agriculture — turning the season’s outcome into a portable Grade that capital can underwrite.
01 · The thesis
Why this hasn't
been priced.
Agricultural lending was designed for a steadier climate, simpler supply chains, and slower information. None of those still hold.
02 · Pricing
Risk gets averaged, not understood.
A drought-prone county and a tile-drained one carry the same rate. Capital can't tell them apart, so it prices to the worse one — or walks away. One rate for everyone no longer holds.
03 · The insight
The outcome exists. It's just never scored.
Every season ends in repaid, late, or not at all — ground truth, generated on the ground each year. The gap isn’t missing data. It’s that no one captures, standardizes, or owns it.
$625B
U.S. farm sector debt outstanding (USDA ERS, 2026 forecast) — the largest under-modeled
asset class in private credit.
2×
share of farm loans requiring restructuring, Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 (Kansas City Fed).
+46%
Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings, 2025 vs 2024 (American Farm Bureau Federation). The
system reads stress through default. We surface it earlier.
Risk is being deferred,
not priced.
02 · The approach
Fallow is building the credit
layer for agriculture.
Fallow translates non-standard farm risk into a standard capital can underwrite — a portable Grade that travels with the operator.
The model gets sharper every season it runs. Fallow doesn’t make the loans — it prices the risk.
Fallow operating thesis · 2026
